China Reserve Cotton: The cotton harvest is coming to an end and the cotton market continues to be weak

With the approaching deadline of the 2011 cotton temporary storage and storage approaching, the cotton enterprises have been paying close attention to the processing of lint in the near future. During the week of March 12-16, the cumulative transaction volume of cotton purchases and storage was 106,500 tons, an increase of 14,160 tons over the previous week, an increase of 15.3%. As of March 16, 2011, the cumulative transaction volume of the storage and purchase transactions in 2011 was 2,907,330 tons, of which 1,288,090 tons were traded in the Mainland and 1,618,440 tons were sold in Xinjiang (including 577,760 tons of the Corps).

From the middle of March to the middle of March, it is difficult for the downstream textile market to show signs of turning up. The purchase of cotton yarn from weaving mills was on-demand and stocks were kept on demand. The transaction of cotton yarns continued to be light. Some spinning manufacturers had limited production intentions, and cotton yarn prices continued to decline. The decrease in the Zheng cotton market and the combined market increased, and the domestic spot market price stabilized with the support of the purchasing and storage policies. On March 16, 32 pure cotton carded yarns were offered at RMB 26,380/ton, which was RMB 130/ton lower than that of the previous week, which was a decrease of 0.5%; polyester staple fiber prices were RMB 11,350/ton, down RMB 120/ton from the previous week. 1%. The average purchase price of Mainland seed cotton was 4.1 yuan/kg, which was the same as that of last week; the average purchase price of Xinjiang seed cotton was 4.25 yuan/kg, which was the same as last week. The average sales price of standard lint in the Mainland was 19,621 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton or 0.05% from last week; the average price of Xinjiang standard lint sales was 20,212 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton or 0.02% from the previous week. Zhengzhou Cotton ** contract settlement price in May 2012 20,535 yuan / ton, compared with last week fell 425 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2%; the national cotton trading market electronic matching transactions May 2012 contract average price of 20088 yuan / ton, compared with Zhou fell 356 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.7%.

According to data from the National Energy Administration, the domestic light industrial electricity consumption in January-February decreased by 3.85% year-on-year, a sharp drop from the same period of last year. On the capital side, as of March 11th, the four large banks in industry, agriculture, China, and China have added less than 20 billion yuan. The above data shows that under the influence of shrinking external demand and insufficient domestic demand, companies are cautious about future economic prospects, and the production and investment business activities of light industries represented by the textile industry continue to slow down. The fundamentals, the recent textile companies to reduce the intensity of lint supplement, the market for the spring of the expected demand has subsided, the domestic cotton market after the end of the storage operation pressure may increase. Recently, the main cotton-producing provinces in the country have begun to carry out spring planting and ploughing. After the country announces a new year's storage and storage price of RMB 20,400/ton, the market pays more attention to the fluctuation of planting area.

The New York Cotton Index continued its downward trend after the Indian government regulated the export ban on cotton and the US Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) report released last week that the global cotton demand and output forecast report was loosening. On March 16, New York Cotton ** contract settled at 87.5 cents/lb in May 2012, down 1.3 cents/lb from the previous week, down 1.5%. The international cotton index (M), which represents the average price of imported cotton in China's main port, was calculated at a 1% tariff, and the import cost of the import was calculated to be 16,070 yuan/ton, down by 160 yuan/ton or 1% from the previous week. The market was 3,551 yuan/ton, and the spread was increased by 151 yuan/ton from the previous week. According to the sliding tax calculation, the import cost was reduced to 16,597 yuan/ton, which was 135 yuan/ton or 0.8% lower than the previous week, which was lower than the domestic market. 3024 yuan / ton, spreads increased by 126 yuan / ton last week.

Although the Greek debt problem has been temporarily alleviated, in the case of European countries using austerity policies to solve the debt problem, how to achieve economic growth and reduce the unemployment rate is a process that is doomed to be arduous and protracted. In the United States, in the first quarter of the year, the US economy continued its recovery in the fourth quarter of 2011. New non-agricultural employment exceeded 200,000 for three consecutive months, exceeding market expectations. The policy statement released this week by the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) is also optimistic about the economic outlook compared with the previous period, which will continue to weaken the probability of the Fed's introduction of a new round of quantitative easing, which will be detrimental to short-term commodity price movements. Fundamentals, although the US cotton export data shows that the contract volume and shipment volume continue to increase steadily, the international cotton price is expected to gain support. However, due to the restrained consumption, it is difficult to get rid of the weaker tone. In the near future, international cotton prices are expected to continue to weaken in a narrow range.

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