New period reorganization warmer yarn prices continued to drop

In the new period, the price keeps falling.

In the 3rd week of April 2014, the domestic flower gauze market was still weakly consolidating, and the trend of sales slowed down, while foreign cotton rebounded slightly. The New York cotton period recovered during the consolidation and returned above the 90 cents/lb integer price point. The cumulative rebounded slightly. The international spot cotton price is also a consolidation trend that has accumulated a slight rebound. The overall trend of the domestic cotton price is to “close” to the reserve cotton transaction price, the spot lint price increase continues to decline; Zhengmian ** recent month contract is also the trend of the decline in the decline; only electronic convergence in recent months, the MA1405 contract phase fluctuates, The cumulative increase continued to rise. The price of cotton staple fiber was weak and steady, but the transaction was dull. The price of polyester staple fiber was a weak trend of a slight rebound, and the price of viscose staple fiber was a weak trend of maintaining stability and a slight decrease. The yarn and cloth market was still weak, trading was sluggish and prices continued to increase. It can be said that: the new period to recover, flower yarn prices continue to fall.

Date Item New York Cotton Season ICE1405 International Cotton Price Index CotlookA (FE) China Imported Cotton Price Index FCindexM China Cotton Price Index CCindex3128B Electronic Blending MA1405 Zheng Cotton ** CF1405 Polyester Staple Fiber Viscose Staple Fiber

This week, the ICE cotton market rebounded and the main ICE cotton contract of 1405 was fluctuating around 90 cents/pound in whole price, and returned over the weekend at 90 cents/pound. The cumulative rebound of the ICE cotton contract rebounded slightly. Trends. The international spot cotton price is also a minor uptrend and rebound. Friday (18th) is Good Friday, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) is closed for one day.

On Monday (14th), the ICE cotton future contract was affected by weather changes (the weather in the western part of the United States was hit by another cold spell in the US Plains.) and economic data growth (US retail sales rose by 1.1% on a monthly basis announced overnight A substantial increase from last month shows that the US economy is recovering strongly.) Support for favorable factors has risen sharply.

On Tuesday, the ICE cotton futures were affected by the profit-taking by investors and failed to extend the previous day's gains. The overall long-term contract fell. The external goods market rose.

On Wednesday, the ICE cotton futures also fully closed up, and the recent contract gains were significant. Mainly by the US cotton planting data and resource constraints (up to April 14th, US cotton planting has been completed 8%, signing and shipment data is good due to US cotton resources are tight.) And so good support. The daily trading volume in the market was larger than the previous day, and the external grain market such as wheat declined.

On Thursday, the ICE cotton futures fell further. There are two reasons: First, they are still worried about price increases, demand, ICE can be delivered on the 2nd futures cotton contract inventory is 282,084 bags, continued to rise; Second, Friday is a good Friday public holiday, investors choose to take profits before the weekend There is a certain amount of price suppression. In the week before last (April 4-10), the United States signed a net contract to export 19,210 tons of land cotton this year (a sharp drop from the previous week and an increase from the average of the four weeks), and 63,548 tons of shipments (an increase of 8% from the previous week). Average reduction of 2% in the last 4 weeks).

This week's Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) cotton futures are the trend of a slight rebound. The main ICE cotton contract for the 1405 contract rose slightly by 1.15 cents/lb, or 1.29%, and the weekend's price was 90.17 cents/lb, again returning above the 90 cents/lb price point. The international cotton price index CotlookA (FE) rose 0.65 cents/lb, a gain of 0.70%, and the weekend price was 92.85 cents/lb. China's imported cotton index FCIndexM increased slightly by 1.32 cents/lb, or 1.38%, and the weekend price was 96.73 cents/lb. (See: Table 1)

This week, the domestic cotton market is still due to the decline in the reserve price of the State Reserve Cotton for sale, and the transaction price has also fallen as a whole. This has weighed on the trend of weaker cotton prices to continue to decline. The main channel for the purchase of cotton by cotton textile companies is still the national reserve cotton from the sale of the State Reserve Cotton. The spot cotton price continued to decrease, the decline contracted, and the transaction was light. Zheng Cotton ** lacks the guidance of the news. Under the impact of the new cotton policy and the weak downward trend in spot lint prices, it shows a trend of near-future and strong differentiation. In recent months, the contract is also a cumulative increase, and the price is traded to reserve cotton. The trend of “prices” is weak, and in the short term, it will continue to maintain the weak performance of the near-month contract and the relative strength of the far-month contract. The electronic matching market was extremely helpless under the impact of price cuts and throws. The entire disk was listless, the turnover and order quantity were sparse, showing the focus of the transaction and ordering in the far month, ordering the cold in recent months, and the overall price shocks and finishing to the spot cotton. Price "seeing" the situation, but only in recent months due to insufficient supply of MA1405 contract, warehouse receipts generated difficulties and the trend is opposite, the price remained at the spot price level and few transactions, the cumulative increase continued to rise.

This week, the state reserve sold a total of 500443.48 tons of cotton and sold a total of 156,891.05 tons of auctions, accounting for 31.35% of the turnover. Due to the introduction of imported cotton, not only did the percentage of “pulling” transactions increase slightly (29.77% last week), but also average transaction price. Also rose. However, after nearly half a month of the “new round” of state reserve cotton sales, the addition of the downstream gauze market has not clearly improved, which has affected cotton textile companies’ enthusiasm for bids and cotton purchases, and has also curbed the growth in cotton demand. In the second half of the week, the enthusiasm of cotton textile companies to participate in the auction has significantly weakened. Despite the “pulling” of imported cotton, the daily sales volume of the State Reserve Cotton increased slightly from last week, and it can still be reduced compared to the beginning of the month. It can be seen that the participation of cotton textile enterprises in the State Reserve Cotton auction has become more and more rational. This is evident from the fact that the auction of resources in the Xinjiang Bank has not continued to increase. At present, the cotton stocks of cotton textile enterprises are mostly maintained at the amount of about 1 month. Due to the restriction on the market outlook for cotton, and the delay in product sales, cotton textile companies do not dare to stock a large amount of raw materials. Each time, they generally use two batches or more to prevent unnecessary losses due to price cuts. Firms that adhere to the attitude of “purchasing with use” must be the majority.

In addition, cotton textile enterprises from other regions have received notifications of quotas for processing trade one after another, and some companies have already inquired cotton out of the market. However, due to the relatively low psychological prices of current companies, transactions are limited. According to a trader from Qingdao, on the 17th, Qingdao Port S-6 grade cotton was reported at 18,100 yuan/ton; the United States M level was reported at 19,500 yuan/ton; Sudanese cotton was suitable for battling cotton with SM grade price at 18,700 yuan/ton, with no price change. Big, market inquiry is normal. At present, between 290,000 tons and 310,000 tons of cotton stocks outside the country's ports, cotton textile companies are competing to buy the lower-priced state reserve cotton, resulting in greater sales pressure and most cotton companies losing money.

Recently, due to the increase in the number of enterprises converting cotton yarns into blended yarns, it has been difficult to obtain orders for low-grade lint grades 3226 and 4128, which are mainly used for the production of carded C21S pure cotton yarn. The cotton processing enterprises are reluctant to lower prices under the pressure of loan repayment, but they are also difficult to get rid of, and they are in a dilemma of “having no market”. Henan Nanyang 4128 cotton mainstream offer 17,800 yuan / ton, down 200 yuan / ton from last week. Anhui Chizhou real estate cotton 5 11,000 yuan / ton (with votes, delivery, cash settlement), 6 9,000 yuan / ton, Chenmian 6 8,000 yuan / ton, a full lower than the middle of last month fell 1,000 yuan / ton.

According to the information provided by the informants, on April 15 and 16, the quotation for batch cotton of grades 3128 and 2128 in Aksu was 18200-18500 yuan/ton and 18500-18800 yuan/ton, respectively, while 4127, 3128, and 2128 mixed grade cotton. The quotes are basically below 18,000 yuan / ton, the lowest price is close to 17,500 yuan / ton. On the 17th, Henan Nanyang Market quoted 1,29,800 yuan/ton for grade 1229, 2,129 yuan/ton for 2,129 grades, 18,500 yuan/ton for 3,128 grades, and 17,800 yuan/ton for 4,128 grades.

The fundamentals are weak and unfavorable to the recent cotton market. Insiders believe that in the global cotton oversupply, cotton staple fiber and other alternative raw materials and downstream cotton yarn prices continue to weaken, plus the uncertainty of the negative frequency The cotton market as a whole presents a weak situation both internally and externally. The inherent contradictions will surface again after a short-term speculation and affect the cotton market in a phased manner. The domestic cotton price will continue to run for a relatively long period of time in the transition period between the old and new policies, and does not rule out the possibility that domestic cotton prices will sometimes be lower than the cost of imported cotton.

At the end of the week, China's cotton price index CCindex3128B recorded a slight decrease of 119 yuan/ton, a drop of 0.64%, and the weekend price was 18,396 yuan/ton. The electronically integrated 1405 contract increased by a total of 1,125 yuan/ton, or 6.07%, and the weekend price was 19,670 yuan/ton. Zheng cotton ** 1405 contract fell slightly 135 yuan / ton, a drop of 0.77%, the weekend price of 17,335 yuan / ton. On the weekend, the spot price of CCindex328 was 1,274 yuan/ton lower than the electronic matching 1405 contract, and 1061 yuan/ton higher than the Zheng cotton **1405 contract. (See: Table 1)

The price of cotton staple fiber was weak and steady this week, but the trend of trading was flat. Among them, the price of polyester staple fiber was a weak trend of a slight rebound, while the price of viscose staple fiber was a weak trend of maintaining stability and a slight decline.

The price of polyester staple fiber in its upstream raw materials rose (international crude oil prices rose 0.56 US dollars/barrel, a slight increase of 0.54%; upstream raw materials PX, PTA, MEG, polyester chip prices rose slightly weak.) Supported by **Increase in the pull and the recent strong trend of polyester filament price trend, the first suppression Hou, 17th (Thursday) downstream users concentrated replenishment, the overall market trading environment is good, polyester staple fiber prices rose slightly, cumulative Slightly rebounded. The current day's mainstream production and sales were in the range of 150-250%, and individual companies produced and sold over 300%. Although the price of polyester staple fiber continued to rise on Friday, the market trading atmosphere has become significantly weaker. At the weekend, the market price of 1.4Dx38mm polyester staple fiber was 8,800 yuan/ton, which still operated under the integer number of 9,000 yuan/ton. During the week, the operating rate of polyester staple fiber production enterprises was maintained at 75-80%, and the production and sales of mainstream staples were between 7-80%. The overall mentality of the polyester market is still difficult to fully stretch. If there is no abnormal fluctuation of raw materials in the short term, the polyester staple fiber market will maintain stable and weak operating trend.

The prices of raw cotton linters and cotton pulp in the upstream of viscose staple fiber were slightly weaker and the support was insufficient. Coupled with the downstream cotton textile company product sales is difficult to start, and the inventory of raw materials can be used until the end of the month or early May, to digest the inventory of raw materials to maintain production, the overall purchase demand is not large, only a few companies occasionally just need a small single replenishment, the new single The production and sales rate is only about 55%. Some viscose staple fiber production enterprises have committed “buy up and not buy down” taboos due to tight funding, adopted “big and favourable” promotion policies and extreme selling practices at low prices, not only have poor sales results, but also lead to viscose. The wait-and-see mood in the staple fiber market was aggravated, the selling price was weak, and the trading environment was even lighter. Weeks of viscose staple fiber production enterprises to maintain the implementation of the pre-contract to maintain production, the overall production and sales rate remained at a low level of 60-70%, production and marketing is difficult to achieve a balance and difficult return, inventory, financial pressure is still large, viscose staple fiber industry Loss reduction tasks are still heavy. In the market situation in which the gauze market is weak and the fundamentals lack effective support, the price of viscose staple fiber will continue to maintain stability and the trend of weak operation.

Weekend statistics, polyester staple fiber prices rose slightly by 10 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.11%, the weekend price of 8,800 yuan / ton. The price of viscose staple fiber accumulated a slight decrease of 25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.22%, and the weekend price was 11,560 yuan/ton. The prices of polyester staple fiber and viscose staple fiber were lower than the domestic spot price of 3128B cotton by 9596 yuan/ton and 6,836 yuan/ton respectively.

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