Interpreting cotton temporary storage plan

Since the 2010/2011 cotton year, cotton prices at home and abroad have skyrocketed due to factors such as the reduction of cotton production in the world's major cotton producing countries such as China and Pakistan, and the recovery of textile consumption in the post-crisis era. The ICE Futures Index rose from 85.7 in early September 2010 to 186.7 in February 2011, an increase of 117.85%. The Chinese cotton price index 328B also rose from 18,002 points in early September 2010 to 30,371 points in February 2011, an increase of 68.71%. High cotton prices have increased the income of cotton farmers, but they have also brought a series of negative impacts. After the Spring Festival, the cost of raw materials for most textile enterprises in China soared, the company’s working capital was difficult, and “orders were not enough”. According to statistics, as of the end of February 2011, the growth rate of yarn production of textile enterprises above designated size in China was 11.3% lower than the same period of last year. The growth rate of cloth production decreased by 37.3% compared with the same period of last year, and clothing output decreased by 2.6% from the same period of last year. How to maintain the balance between the income growth of cotton farmers and the normal production of textile enterprises has become a difficult problem to be solved by the government and industry organizations.

In this situation, the state promulgated the "2011 Preliminary Interim Cotton Storage and Storage Plan" (hereinafter referred to as the "preplan") in a timely manner. It can be described as a long-term perspective, benefiting from the autumn.

The scope of collection and storage of the "preplan" basically forms full coverage of the major cotton-planting areas in China, and fully takes into account the interests of the major cotton planting organizations in the country. In 2010, affected by the soaring price of cotton, the price of seed cotton in the country rose a lot. According to the 2010/2011 annual cotton planting cost of 1200 yuan/mu, the average yield per mu of 75 kilograms, the average sales price of lint cotton at 26,000 yuan/ton, and the cotton farmers' average income per mu of 750 yuan. According to the "plan" plan 19,800 yuan / ton, cotton planting costs 1,200 yuan / acre basis, the minimum income of cotton farmers will be maintained at 285 yuan / mu. From a numerical point of view, the average income per mu is not high, which is lower than the income from grain production and the income from cotton planting last year. However, compared with previous years, the policy support has been great. In addition, the "preplan" also made a principled provision for the acquisition of enterprises, and requested the local government of the cotton-storage area to have the obligation to implement price supervision for the storage and storage enterprises. This will fundamentally protect the sale and purchase interests of cotton farmers.

Since the reform of the cotton circulation system, affected by the low concentration of cotton planting in China, there have been many problems in the acquisition and processing of cotton, such as more than three wires, high water content, low micronaire value, continued production of small processing equipment, and low processing quality. The "preplan" stipulates that the 400-type processing enterprises can directly deposit the processed cotton, which will play a positive role in curbing the disorderly development of small-scale processing enterprises and reducing resource consumption.

The "preplan" emphasizes that the national cotton market inspection system and the China Cotton Association monitor domestic market prices of cotton and seed cotton, take the average cotton price monitored by the two units and the average price of seed cotton as the average price of domestic cotton and seed cotton production, and pass the relevant industries. The website is published daily. The improvement of information transparency will form a constraint on the suppression of artificially driving up prices during the period of deposits and deposits, and ensure the stable operation of cotton prices during collection and storage. The "preplan" also emphasized that when the monitored cotton market price was lower than the temporary reserve price for five consecutive days, the China Storage Cotton Company issued an announcement in a timely manner and started a storage and pre-arrangement plan. This is similar to the CCC** system that prevails in the US cotton market.

The "preplan" also made arrangements for the use of funds for storage and storage of cotton, and provided that the sales department of the Agricultural Development Headquarters shall uniformly issue credits** and repatriate them from the Sinotrans Cotton Company. This means that the storage and storage are exclusively operated by China Storage Cotton Company, and the issuance of storage funds to various generations of storage sites will be implemented by China Cotton Storage Corporation in a single implementation, avoiding the occurrence of wrangling or redemption.

Since the listing of New Cotton last year, under the situation of tight supply of domestic cotton resources and high cotton prices, domestic textile companies generally believe that the 2011 cotton market will be "highly operational and tightly supplied." Guided by this expectation, the concept of rising cotton prices was strengthened by the market. The timely issuance of the "preplan" by the country will greatly weaken the market's expectations for price increases of raw materials in the future and will help the production and operation of textile companies.

In addition, the introduction of the "preplan" is conducive to raising the enthusiasm of cotton farmers, which will promote the further increase of cotton planting area. If China's cotton growing condition is normal this year, China's cotton production is expected to reach or reach 7 million tons, which will significantly ease the tight cotton supply and demand situation in the current textile production, and further the cotton futures and spot market forward contracts for domestic and even the world. Spot cotton price pressure. For several contracts prior to the 1109 cotton market in Zheng Cotton, the impact of the “preplan” is more focused on the psychological level, and the factors that dominate the prices of these contracts are still changing in the demand of the cotton market in China this year. If demand increases, the price will steadily increase. If the demand decreases, the price will decline slightly.

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